A four-part video series produced by the Kenya Broadcasting Corporation (KBC) and supported by the Fund for Investigative Journalism gives an update on the beleaguered communities of Lake Turkana, the world’s largest desert lake that supplies vital ecosystem services and livelihoods to 300,000 people in northwestern Kenya. The lake is fed entirely by the Omo River, flowing south from Ethiopia, but a newly completed upstream dam has raised questions about the future.

Through interviews with local people and experts, the report concludes Lake Turkana is already seeing negative effects from the operation of the Gibe III Dam, including a receding shoreline, reduced fish production, and decreased tree coverage.

“If the Ethiopians complete their schemes, Lake Turkana will virtually disappear. It will be an old lake with nothing to show,” predicted Richard Leakey, chair of Kenya Wildlife Service board and founder of the Turkana Basin Institute. “I think Lake Turkana is going to be the second Aral Sea. It is one of the worst environmental disasters you can imagine.”

A Threat to Regional Security?

The Kenya Electricity Transmission Company (KETRACO) commissioned an environmental impact assessment on the effects of the dam, which was supposed to be carried out prior to the start of construction. A formal report was not released until two years after construction began, however, and consultation with county government officials and local people was minimal to non-existent, reports Rosalia Omungo. As a result, people have little information on what effects the dam will bring and there is worry about conflict over dwindling resources.

To help meet Ethiopia’s electricity demands, the Gibe III project was initiated in 2006 by the state-owned Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation. Once fully operational, it will be the third largest hydroelectric plant in Africa with a power output of about 1,870 megawatts, more than doubling the total installed hydropower capacity of Ethiopia.

Though KETRACO asserts Gibe III will not have any effect on the lake, as the dam does not divert water from the Omo, the KBC report features locals who say otherwise. “Long ago, one fish was sufficient to feed a family of 10. But now, look at these [fish] – so little,” said Joseph Loiyetei, a Turkana fisherman.

The number of people reliant on the lake and commercial fishing activity has also increased. Omungo reports fishermen from as far away as the Democratic Republic of the Congo are flocking to its shores.

A report from Human Rights Watch, released in October 2015, warns that industrial and agricultural development projects in Ethiopia could reduce water supply to Turkana by 50 percent, reducing it to two small pools. And a joint monitoring mission conducted by World Heritage Center and International Union of Conservation of Nature to assess the impact of Gibe III found its impounding will cause the lake to drop by approximately two meters.

As the only water source in what is otherwise a desert, there’s pervasive worry that recession of the lake could lead to conflict. A report by International Rivers last year noted the high level of anxiety about conflict among locals. Fighting between the Dassenetch peoples on the Ethiopian side of the border and Turkana peoples on the Kenyan side has erupted periodically over land and revenge killings. An exchange in 2011 left 50 dead, according to the KBC.

“Residents believe Lake Turkana is their shield and defense,” reports Omungo. “They feel the conflicts will increase if the lake diminishes.”

Heritage Under Siege

One avenue for protecting the lake could be through its UNESCO World Heritage site designation. Lake Turkana was listed as a protected cultural treasure in 1997 for its early hominid fossils and unique wildlife.

According to Leakey, the degradation of the lake is posing a threat to this heritage – not only because of development in Ethiopia but in Kenya. Large numbers of livestock routinely graze in Sibiloi National Park and commercial fishing continues to increase. In a letter to Irina Bokova, director general of the World Heritage Center of UNESCO, and Achim Steiner, executive director of the UN Environment Program, that Leakey shows KBC, he writes that “this park, its biodiversity, and the cultural heritage (fossil remains and archaeological elements) continue to be seriously degraded. …For this area to be called a World Heritage Site under the UNESCO network is a travesty which seriously questions the very authority and prestige of UNESCO itself.”

Leakey blames the Kenya Wildlife Service and National Museums of Kenya, the two authorities charged with the responsibility for the heritage protection, for failing their obligations. The World Heritage Center promised to address the problem, and forwarded the letter to the State of Party of Kenya.

However, the construction of Gibe III continues and locals still feel left in the dark, says Omungo.

“Yes, it is a world heritage site. But if that’s a world heritage site as it is now, it debases the whole concept of the world heritage,” Leakey tells KBC.