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Climate change, vulnerability and security in the Sahel

30 November, 2022

Pia Van Ackern (adelphi)
Adrien Detges (adelphi)

Climate change plays an important role in the future of the Sahel. Temperatures could rise 1.5 times faster than the global average and climate shocks and extreme events are projected to become more frequent and severe. These changes are accompanied by other challenges: accelerated population growth, low economic productivity and production diversity, political conflicts and crises, inter-communal violence and violent extremism. Looking ahead to 2050, this paper presents three scenarios for the part of the Sahel comprising Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.

Download the report: English | French

Each scenario is characterised by a different level of vulnerability and resilience to the future effects of climate change, and therefore different challenges and opportunities for the security and development of the region. The main purpose of the scenarios is to describe and assess these challenges in order to facilitate anticipatory action.

3 Scenarios for the Sahel:

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This description was excerpted from cascades.eu.

Watch interviews conducted with local experts in a stakeholder workshop held in Dakar, Senegal in March 2023 (in French)

Répondre à la sécurité climatique au niveau national - Laure Tall

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Le rôle du PNUD dans la sécurité climatique - Serge Ndjekouneyom

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La mobilité comme une stratégie d'adaptation au climat - Hind Bennani

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Collaborer avec les communautés sahéliennes - Mamadou Diallo

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La crise climatique au Sahel et les réponses européennes - Boubacar Ba

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Stratégies de financement et collaboration avec les acteurs locaux - Sayouba Ouedraogo

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Évolution de la transhumance sahélienne - Issifou Ganou

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